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There’s a lot of buzz these days about viral loops, and how critical they can be to the success of certain startups.  It’s one thing to understand the concept in theory.  It’s quite another to see miniature case studies of successful user flows laid out in an easy to consume manner.

That’s exactly what the new and incredibly useful ProductPlanner does.  Consider Facebook’s Sign Up loop, for instance.  Once you’ve walked through the user flow in isolation, the elements that make the product so damn viral quickly become clear.

Put in terms of the finite state machine I mentioned, Facebook makes it a priority to locate all other existing users who might possibly be friends with the new user.  The app leverages Metcalfe’s Law to provide an immediate and exponential increase in value, hastening the transition from new user to casual or even power user.

But the real kicker, is even in a worst case scenario where the new user fails to find value in the service and immediately jumps to the dormant user state, he provides some value to Facebook since new users promote the service even as they sign up!

I was pleasantly surprised to have found several urgent emails from a number of friends who were concerned that Sarah and I might have been caught in the devastating wake of Cyclone Nagris. To alleviate any outstanding concerns, I thought I should announce that we are completely safe.

We actually left Yangon nearly two weeks ago, and have been lazing away the days on some of Thailand’s most beautiful islands. Being on the Andaman Sea meant we were on the fringes of the storm but the worst that we experienced was an extended down pour and heavier than usual winds - nothing compared to the monumental suffering the Burmese must cope with.

This shares some similarities with our Tibet trip. We spent nearly a month there, and shared a magical time with many locals while we were there. Yet only a couple of weeks after our departure, we started reading the early reports about the escalating violence that would consume Lhasa. Some of the travelers that we had traded stories with over beers were trapped in the city, literally barricaded for days within the tenuous safety of our hostel.

As we start the next leg of our journey in the Middle East, I’m really starting to appreciate the luck we’ve had thus far avoiding serious tragedy. Knock on wood.

Edit: We weren’t exactly at the epicenter of the earthquake that has rocked the Sichuan province in China, but we did pass through the nearby city of Chengdu.  Since this happened months ago, its not quite a close call, but still worth noting given Rajiv’s theory #2.

I’ve recently become acquainted with a Canadian radio host working in China who shared with me an incredible insider’s perspective on how the PRC maintains an iron grip on the media.  Consider that:

• Major broadcast centers must be based in Beijing, so that the political elite can keep the media close at hand.
• Security is taken very seriously - the aforementioned broadcast centers all have guards armed with assault rifles deployed in their lobbies. 
• DJs are all issued lengthy lists of forbidden topics each week, which include unfavorable news stories and certain personalities. 
• All programming is carefully scripted and pre-recorded.  These recordings undergo scrutiny from at least 4 officials before being played over the air.
• Senior leadership and even middle management is composed entirely of party members. 
• Taiwan can’t even be mentioned in the same context as other independent nations, such as Korea or Japan.  Instead, it must be listed along with the rest of China’s provinces.
• Many Taiwanese artists that refer to Taiwan as independent are banned.  Yet Western songs with curse words can be freely played.

Its absolutely astounded by just how deep this censorship rabbit hole goes.

I’m starting to appreciate the irony of Pandora’s choice in brand.

Pandora is an online music service that has taken an interesting approach to personalized internet radio. They’ve identified over 400 attributes that capture the essence of a given piece of music. I don’t know exactly how this works, but I imagine some of these attributes must include aspects like tempo or major vs minor keys or which instruments were used to create the music. By mapping out the music genome of hundreds of thousands of songs, Pandora is able to create streaming radio stations tailored to your tastes.

Its a pioneering music service that does an incredible job exposing listeners to obscure yet relevant artists. Unfortunately for music aficionados, Pandora seems to be living up to its namesake.

While Pandora (the webcaster) hasn’t necessarily introduced new evils to the world, by attempting to create a truly innovative digital music service, it is calling attention to evils which already exist.

In this case, Pandora’s box is the music industry and when it was open, out came SoundExchange, the Copyright Royalty Board and international music licensing. Here’s a quick recap of two litigious events which have recently besieged this company:

• SoundExchange is the branch of the RIAA which governs radio. They’ve gotten the Copyright Royalty Board to approve a request to increase the royalty which internet radio companies must pay by 300% - 1200%. This rate hike makes most internet radio business models completely unviable. The only option small companies like Pandora have for survival is to strike deals directly with the labels. This something which would almost certainly entail handing over programming control and ruin precisely that which makes Pandora so great. Major labels will either further line their pockets or gain enough control to promote their top 40 stable of artists.

• The beauty of the internet is that it gives anyone instant global distribution for digital content. As word has spread virally about Pandora, listeners from all over the globe have begun tuning in and creating their own custom radio stations. Unfortunately, due to licensing constraints, Pandora is being forced to block access to their service outside of the US. Knowing how fragmented the international licensing landscape is, it could take years before Pandora is able to open its doors back to foreigners.

At the end of the day, its the small, innovative music services and ultimately music fans everywhere that lose.

Fortunately, the story doesn’t end here. House Representatives Jay Inslee and Donald Manzullo are introducing the Internet Radio Equality Act which if approved would neutralize the rate hike. SaveNetRadio is a newly formed grassroots coalition of artists, listeners and webcasters with the same goals in mind. Pandora is actively working on acquiring the licenses needed to operate outside of the US.

Much like the Greek myth, Pandora finds that in spite of the tragedy, there’s still something left at the very bottom of the box - hope.

Ever taken or given out your phone number to someone at a bar, only to seriously regret it the next day? If you have, then no doubt you’re familiar with the beer goggle effect.

I first encountered beer goggles my freshman year at Penn. However, I’ve never seen it quantified like this. In a nutshell, a group of researchers at the University of Manchester have actually developed a formula for calculating the beer goggle effect.

The equation is straightforward enough, so I went ahead and put together a simple spreadsheet to help you determine what your beer goggle effect is on a normal Friday night.

As for myself, I figure on an average night out, I get minimal beer goggles with a rating of 10.0.

I’ve mellowed out since college, and tend to hang out at dive bars, having maybe 4 beers total. Smokiness is not a factor, since smoking indoors has been banned in Seattle. Most dive bars are relatively dark, so I set that parameter at 35. My vision is pretty bad - even with contacts I’d rate myself at 0.9, and 3 meters seems like as good a distance as any to check someone out.

What rating did you end up with?